(Medway, MA; March 15, 2021) – A new study by the Beacon Hill Institute finds legislation calling for a net-zero emissions policy by 2050 is flawed and unrealistic. The study estimates that a 100 percent reduction in emissions today would require a gallon of gasoline to be priced above $14.00.
The study also notes that proponents of S. 2995, “An Act Creating a Next-Generation Roadmap for Massachusetts Climate Policy,” cannot depend on the improvements in technology needed to meet such ambitious goals.
The bill, which in a previous form was pocket-vetoed by Governor Charles Baker, specifies emissions reduction targets, reevaluated in five-year increments, specifically, that by 2030, emissions in Massachusetts are to be 50 percent below 1990 emissions levels, by 2040, 75 percent below 1990 levels, and by 2050, at net-zero status. It is currently under consideration for revisions. Such revisions should take into account the shortcomings identified by the Institute.
“Drawing from history, prohibition never works as planned,” notes co-author David G. Tuerck, President of the Institute. “In this study, we conclude that this legislation is misconceived. The ‘absolute zero’ approach embodied in the legislation would be economically ruinous. It would increase costs to the average Massachusetts household to unacceptable levels.”
Lacking a global focus, S. 2995 would also be ineffectual for any hope of ameliorating climate change. Finally, it would fail to price carbon emissions at a level that reflects their harm to the climate. The most appropriate form of pricing would be in the form of a carbon tax that produces the needed reduction in emissions at the lowest cost to society. S.2995 satisfies none of these criteria.
If the Commonwealth sought to reduce emissions by 100 percent, the price of a gallon of gasoline would have to rise above $14.10 and the tax per metric ton of gasoline emissions would have to be $1,585. These numbers would apply if the Commonwealth wanted to eliminate gasoline consumption now.
“No doubt defenders of the zero-carbon goal would argue that the technology of 2050 will much reduce these numbers,” added Tuerck. “But no one knows by how much because no one knows what the future technology will look like. The point is that proponents of the zero-emissions goal do not bother to think through the improvements in technology that their ideas would necessitate – improvements that are far beyond our imagination now.”
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BHI-ZeroCarbon-2050-March-15-2021
